Malthus Essay Research Paper MALTHUS Two hundred

Malthus Essay, Research Paper

MALTHUS

Two hundred years ago, Thomas Robert Malthus, a British economist , wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population in which he argued that the world population would increase faster than the food supply, with disastrous results for the general human welfare. A world population of 250 million at the time of Christ has now grown to 5.7 billion in spite of wars, plagues, famine, and epidemics. World food production has been keeping pace with population growth until recently.

If the world food supply had been distributed equally to each member of society in the mid 1980 s, the population of 4.7 billion would have been allocated a weekly diet of 11 pounds of meat, grain and fish per person. In todays world, a billion people have been added to the population and the food supply has decreased to less than 10 pounds per week per person. The typical weekly diet in the U.S. is about 17 pounds, which means a significant number of the worlds people are eating considerably less

than the average of 10 pounds per week. A world population of 10 to 11 billion by mid century will have an individual allocation of 6 to 7 pounds per week, equivalent to the diet of todays members of society living in poverty.

Food projections are extremely uncertain since natural disasters are unpredictable and may increase if the forecasted effects of global warming materialize. Also, environmental degradation is increasing while water allocations are decreasing.

Society will not be suddenly surprised by a crisis point at which food supplies are no longer adequate. Todays isolated anarchy and famine (which is politically inspired) in Africa could easily turn into a world wide sustenance inspired problem during the first half of the next century.

Humans are the only creatures endowed with the ability to evaluate the consequences of their own actions. Since the problem transcends all aspects of the worlds religious and political structures, it must be addressed by all speakers from the pulpit or podium who can influence the public mind set.

OUR FERTILE SOCIETY

While the annual population growth seems to have reached a plateau, the the world has added 85 to 90 million people every year for the last decade. Recent regional decreases in population growth rates coupled with dramatic gains in agricultural production mask the severity of the problem which is just now becoming evident in terms of real numbers. A world population

of 250 million at the beginning of Christianity has

now grown to 5.7 billion in spite of wars, plagues,

famine, and epidemics. Unrestrained, this growth

could continue until world population approaches

11 billion in the year 2050. (Using currently

assumed declining growth rates). An unchecked

continuation of the AIDS epidemic would infect

320 million people by the year 2050 but would

have a negligible effect on the total food

requirements of the 11,000 million.

Each month the world adds another New

York City. The 300,000 Somalis who died of starvation in late 1992 were replaced in only 29 hours.

HOW OUR SOCIETY EATS TODAY

The worlds diet is composed basically of three food systems: grain, meat and fish. Grain (wheat, corn and rice) consumed directly supply about 70 percent of human food energy. Unlike perishable fruits and vegetables, grain can be stored over the

winter months and is therefore a useful measure of food resources.

Grain is also used as feed to supplement the production of meat

(beef, pork and poultry) and ocean catch fish. Affluent societies

have diets high in animal protein while subsistence level societies

rely primarily on the starchy foods of grain products. In general, it

appears that an affluent society lives on about 17pounds per week

per person while people at the poverty level subsist on about a

pound a day, or seven pounds per week per person.

OUR FUTURE DIET

World food production has been keeping pace with population growth until recently. Actually, the food available per person

has increased each year until the mid 80’s, but has been declining for the last ten years.

Food projections into the future become increasingly uncertain for the later years because:

a) Natural disasters are unpredictable, usually not included in projections, but could become more frequent if the forecasted

effects of global warming materialize.

b) The ability to control environmental degradation is becoming increasingly difficult.

c) The impact of problems with allocating scarce water are just now beginning to be appreciated.

d) The depletion of non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels (gas, oil, etc.) needed for farming and distribution will

contribute to the increasing costs of dwindling food supplies.

Grain Harvest Projections

World farmland planted in grain increased until

1980 and then started to decline because of

environmental factors such as soil erosion,

waterlogging and salting of irrigated land, air

pollution, and water shortages.

Urban sprawl reduces farmland at the rate of

one acre

Внимание, отключите Adblock

Вы посетили наш сайт со включенным блокировщиком рекламы!
Ссылка для скачивания станет доступной сразу после отключения Adblock!

Скачать