Echo Boomers

& Crime Essay, Research Paper

The Echo Boom and Its Anticipated Effects on Youth Violence

“The definition of crime is culturally subjective. So is society’s response to the persons who commit crimes. Crime is an act that is believed to be socially harmful by a group that has power to enforce its beliefs and that provides negative sanctions to be applied to persons who commit these acts”. (Wolfgang, 1978)

With the advent of each new generation, scholars, historians and politicians revel with startling new insights as to what the future holds for our offspring and us. The new generation dubbed the “Echo Boomers” on the presumption they will echo in the wake of the Baby Boom generation, is the focus such revelations. After having been caught off guard by the dramatic upsurge in crime during the adolescent years of the Baby Boom generation, numerous articles, books, congressional and presidential reports have focused considerable attention towards predicting the criminal behavior of these latest newcomers, even before they were born.

Following the lead of James Allen Fox, who in 1978 first addressed this in a book called Forecasting Crime Data, today many more highly acclaimed experts in the field of Criminal Justice are of the same opinion that there will be another sharp increase in crime and gang violence whence the echo cohorts reach their most criminogenic years, between 14 and 24 years of age (Fox, 1978). So far they have been mistaken. Crime rates have been declining steadily since the 1990s, when the first wave of the Echo cohorts bloomed into their most crime-prone adolescent years.

Currently there is considerable debate among Criminologist as to the reason or reasons for this decrease in crime when all data indicated the contrary would happen. One possible explanation for the inaccurate predictions might be a result of skewed statistical analysis from prior years accompanied with the changing mores of American culture.

A Discussion Of Demographics & Crime

There is general agreement among Criminologist that changes in crime rates relate directly with changing demographics. That is to say as there is a flux in the most criminogenic population, meaning youth between the ages of 14-24 years as being the most age-specific group that contributes more than any other to the rates of crimes of violence for the total population (Fox, 1978), so too will there be a similar change in crime rates (Wolfgang, 1978; Fox, 1978).

In the aftermath of World War 2, between the years of 1947 and 1964, approximately 77 million births occurred in the United States, known as the Baby Boom. As the largest birth cohort recorded in American history, they significantly altered the age composition of the U.S. population, such that a swelling of the age group between 14 and 24 years occurred in the early 1960s (and into the late 1970’s), hence violent crimes have increased 180 percent between 1960 and 1970. Baby Boomers today make up about 30% of the current population (Fox, 1996).

In comparison, the Echo boom Cohort rivals the baby boomers closely with 72 million born in the years from 1977 to 1994, of which the overwhelming majority are children of the Baby Boomers. As this new cohort’s name implies, they echo their parent’s generation; in shear numbers alone they represent twenty eight percent of the current population in the United States. The significant differences in their demographics is that one third of Echo Boomers are minorities compared to only one forth of Baby Boomers. African Americans account for fifteen percent of the Echo Boomers and fourteen percent are Hispanic, whereas only eleven percent of the Baby Boomers are African American and nine percent are Hispanic (Marvell, 1997).

As a result of many socio-economic factors, including the changing role of women in the family and society overall, the years in-between these two extremely large cohorts, saw a sharp decline in the annual birth rate by almost one half. The Baby Bust cohort, also known as Generation X or GenXers, born between from 1965 to 1976, is generally referred to as the “me” generation or generation of self-indulgence of the 1980’s. The first decrease in crime rates was predicted to begin in 1980, since the impact this smaller cohort had demographically was greatly reduced when they entered into their crime-prone adolescence years while the significantly larger baby boom cohorts matured into adulthood.

In terms of demographic changes impacting crime rates, the sharp decrease of the most criminogenic population from 1980 to 1990 was forecast to have resulted in a similar trend with respect to a decline in violent crimes. Dr. James Allan Fox wrote in 1976 An Economic Analysis of Crime Data, (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Pennsylvania, 1976) and again in 1978, when he wrote Forecasting Crime Data. He states “The crime forecasts reveal a general reduction in upward trend during the 1980s and a trend increase during the 1990s” (Fox, 1978).

Dr. Fox attributes a significant portion of the crime rates rise and falls with the increase and decrease in nonwhite population. “The far more interesting relationship, however, is that between crime rate fluctuations and changes in the race-age distribution (as measured by the proportion of nonwhite youths)”. Here he states the cause of the sharp increase in viole